2022年5月至7月，南欧遭遇罕见的持续性极端高温与干旱（图1）。研究发现，极端高温导致电力需求创纪录增长，同时异常大气环流又抑制了可再生能源发电，而后者在欧盟总发电量中占比超过三分之一，这对南欧能源系统造成双重压力。
Figure 1. Evolutions of (a) daily Tmax and (b) monthly precipitation over South Europe: red line represents 2022, grey shading represents the historical range, black line represents the historical average. (c) Evolutions of May–July mean SAT (red line) and precipitation (blue line) anomalies over South Europe from 1980 to 2022.
结果表明，持续的热浪直接推升了南欧地区的电力需求；与此同时，欧洲上空的异常高压系统不仅加强了热浪，还削弱了对风力发电至关重要的低层大气盛行西北风，导致南欧风能发电量明显下降（图2）。极端气候异常造成了电力需求激增与可再生能源供应下降的双重矛盾。
在欧盟提出加速可再生能源转型并力争2050年实现“气候中和”目标的背景下，提升能源部门对极端气候的韧性和适应能力，将是确保能源安全与实现减排承诺的关键。值得注意的是，中国也已明确提出力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和目标，这为全球能源体系在应对气候变化中提供了重要参照。
Figure 2. (a–c) Regressions of May–July mean (a) SLP (shading) and UV850 (vectors), (b) Z300, and (c) magnitude of vector wind at 100m (UV100m) anomalies against the simultaneous negative wind power generation index (-Wind_PGI) during 1980–2022. (d–f) Same as (a–c), but against the SAT index. Regions with correlations above the 90% confidence level are dotted. The vectors are above the 90% confidence level. (g–i) Anomalies of May–July mean (g) SLP (shading) and UV850 (vectors), (h) Z300, and (i) magnitude of UV100m in 2022, relative to the climatology of 1981–2010.
论文信息：
Xu, X., S. He, B. Zhou, H. Wang, H. Jiang, C. Liu, B. Sun, T. Yin, and J. Yan, 2025: South European heatwaves and their impacts on the power system in 2022. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 130, e2024JD042310.