个人科研简历

一、姓名

任宏利

二、研究方向

ENSO动力学、海气相互作用、中高纬气候动力学、气候预测、青藏高原气象学等。

三、教育及工作经历

1997.9—2001.6，兰州大学大气科学系气象学专业，理学学士；

2001.9—2006.6，兰州大学大气科学学院气象学专业，理学博士学位；

2006.5—2014.6，国家气候中心，助研、副研；

2008.4—2013.4，美国夏威夷大学气象系，访问学者、博士后；

2014.6—2020.4，国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室，副主任、研究员；

2020.5—2022.5，中国气象科学研究院青藏高原与极地气象科学研究所 副所长、所长；

2022.6—2024.11，中国气象科学研究院 青藏高原气象研究所 所长；

2023.1—2024.11，中国气象科学研究院 青藏高原气象研究院 副院长；

2024.12—至今，中国气象科学研究院气象影响与风险研究中心主任；

四、近五年（2021-2025）主持科研项目

l国家自然科学基金杰出青年基金项目“海气相互作用与气候预测”（2025－2029年）

l国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目“基于时间尺度分离的我国汛期雨带异常演变预测研究”（2023－2026年）

l国家重点研发计划“重大自然灾害防控与公共安全”专项“青藏高原致灾气象过程发生机理及预报方法研究”项目之第三课题“高原致灾气象过程的气候调制及影响”（2023－2026）

五、近五年（2021-2025）发表学术论文列表

1.Ren, Hong-Li^*, and Jieru Ma^#. 2026: A novel seasonal prediction targeting spatiotemporal evolution patterns.SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences, online.doi.org/10.1007/s11430-025-1951-4

2.Ren, Hong-Li^*, Yu Geng^#, Yi Deng, Jieru Ma. 2026: Tibetan-Plateau heating subseasonally bursts marine heatwaves in Kuroshio Extension.Science Bulletin,doi:10.1016/j.scib.2026.01.051.

3.Wang, Yuwen,Hong-Li Ren^*, Yuntao Wei^*, Jie Wu, Shuo Zhao, Wenwen Xu. 2026: Modulation of the Indian OceanBasin mode on the MJO during boreal summer.Climate Dynamics,64(3): 88. doi:10.1007/s00382-025-08033-8.

4.Wang, Jiaxu, Jie Wu^*,Hong-Li Ren, Lijuan Chen. 2026: Diversity and Formation Characteristics of Persistent Wet–Cold Compound Extreme Events in China.Journal of Meteorological Research,40(2), 341–360. doi:10.1007/s13351-026-5209-3.

5.Zhou, Fang,Hong-Li Ren^*, Li Gao^*, Yiwei Li, Lin Wang, and Minghong Liu. 2026: Modeling circulation-precipitation overlapped co-evolution for improving subseasonal prediction in the Yangtze River Basin.Geophysical Research Letters,53, e2026GL122773. doi:10.1029/ 2026GL122773.

6.Liu, Han,Wei, Yuntao^*,Hong-Li Ren^*, Xianghui Fang. 2026: Asymmetric modulation of MJO by two types of ENSO.Journal of Climate,39(8),1905–1925. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0248.1.

7.Qiu, Weiteng^*, Matthew Collins, Adam A. Scaife, Agus Santoso,Hong-Li Ren^*, 2026: How will tropical Pacific trends affect the future of the southern annular mode?Earth’s Future,14, e2025EF007158.doi:10.1029/2025EF007158.

8.Wang, Run,Hong-Li Ren^*, Minghong Liu. 2026: Diversity of developing El Niño events and its relationship with the zonal contrast SSTA mode in summer.Journal of Climate,39(4), 1219–1233. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0332.1.

9.Lan, Junhan, Bin Chen^*, Jieru Ma,Hong-Li Ren^*. 2026: Linkage between the Tibetan Plateau summer rainfall and direct moisture supplies from the key low-latitude seas.Atmospheric Research,331, 108636. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108636.

10.Huang, Yunda,YuntaoWei^*,Hong-Li Ren^*. 2026: Modulation of ENSO on the MJO forecast.Atmospheric Research,330, 108510. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108510.

11.Nie, Yu^*, Adam A. Scaife, Nick J. Dunstone, Steven C. Hardiman,Hong-Li Ren, Jinqing Zuo. 2025: Skillful prediction of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation: opportunities from circumglobal waveguide dynamics.Geophysical Research Letters,52(24), e2025GL118599. doi:10.1029/2025GL118599.

12.Lu, Mengmeng,Haoxin Zhang, andHong-Li Ren^*. 2025: Interannualvariability of winter extreme cold days over Tibetan Plateau: modulations by Northern-Hemispheric polar vortex and ENSO.Journal of Climate,38(24), 7589–7601.doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0291.1.

13.Zhao, Shuo,Hong-Li Ren^*, Adam A. Scaife, Yu Nie, Jinqing Zuo. 2025: Attributing phase asymmetry in dynamic synoptic eddy feedback on NAO based on storm track model experiments,Climate Dynamics,63(10): 408. doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07826-1.

14.Qin, Ting,Hong-Li Ren^*, Shuo Zhao, Chenguang Zhou, Li Gao^*, Fei-Fei Jin. 2025: Climatic characteristics and interannual influencing factors of extreme cyclones in the Arctic cold season,Climate Dynamics,63(7): 283. doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07762-0.

15.Han, Shuangze,Hong-Li Ren^*, Jianqi Sun, Baohuang Su, Mengqi zhang. 2025: Connection of autumn North Asian snow with mid-winter Tibetan Plateau snow.Geophysical Research Letters,52(20), e2025GL118606. doi:10.1029/2025GL118606.

16.Liu, Minghong,Hong-Li Ren^*, Lin Wang, Run Wang, Jieru Ma, Duo Bian, Jun Du. 2025: Unravelling impact of North Indian Ocean on Tibetan Plateau summer precipitation from its pattern diversity.Geophysical Research Letters,52(20), e2025GL118116. doi:10.1029/2025GL118116.

17.Zhang, Haoxin,Hong-Li Ren^*, Mengmeng Lu, 2025: Significant May-to-June persistence of precipitation in the western Tibetan Plateau: memory effect of local soil moisture.Environmental Research Communications,7(9), 091014. doi:10.1088/2515-7620/ae0910.

18.Wang, Yujun, Li Gao^*,Hong-Li Ren^*, Lin Wang. 2025: Subseasonal extreme forecast index for high temperature based on the ECMWF S2S model data.Journal of Meteorological Research,39(5), 1299–1315. doi:10.1007/s13351-025-4199-x.

19.Sang, Yinghan,Hong-Li Ren^*, Mei Li. 2025: Delayed impacts of spring soil moisture in the Tibetan Plateau on early-summer air temperature in the northern East Asia.Geophysical Research Letters,52(16), e2025GL116361. doi:10.1029/2025GL116361.

20.Ma, Jieru,Hong-Li Ren^*, Ming Cai, Yi Deng, Chenguang Zhou, Jian Li, Huizheng Che, Lin Wang. 2025: Skillful seasonal predictions of continental East-Asian summer rainfall by integrating its spatio-temporal evolution,Nature Communications,16:273. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-55271-1.

21.Ma, Jieru,Hong-Li Ren^*, Ming Cai, Xiangde Xu, Yu Geng, Minghong Liu. 2025: Skillful seasonal forecasting of spatiotemporal rainfall anomalies over High Mountain Asia.Geophysical Research Letters,52(14), e2025GL117001. doi:10.1029/2025GL117001.

22.Zhao, Zuosen, Li Gao^*,Hong-Li Ren^*. 2025: Forecasting meridional swings of the Mei-yu rain belt and western Pacific subtropical high during 2020 summer extreme flood.Weather and Forecasting,40(9), 1645–1652. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-24-0207.1.

23.Lan, Junhan,Hong-Li Ren^*, Jieru Ma, Bin Chen. 2025: Primary interannual variability modes of summer moisture transports in the Tibetan Plateau.Remote Sensing,17, 1508. doi:10.3390/rs17091508.

24.Lu, Mengmeng, andHong-Li Ren^*. 2025: Linkage between Southeast and South Asian summer monsoons: Relative roles of the Pacific-Japan pattern and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation,Journal of Climate,38(6), 1421–1433. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0317.1.

25.Wei, Yuntao^*, Mu Mu, Tao Lian, Huang-Hsiung Hsu,Hong-Li Ren^*, Jie Wang, Chaopeng Ji, Lingjiang Tao. 2025: The March 2023 MJO and its impacts on the subsequent coastal El Niño,Journal of Climate,38(4), 1155–1173. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0198.1.

26.Xu, Wenwen, andHong-Li Ren^*. 2025: Distinct changes in the vertical structure of QBO amplitude due to tropical upwelling and wave forcing.Environmental Research Letters,20(3), 034014. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adb2a7.

27.Zhou, Chenguang,Hong-Li Ren^*, Wenwen Xu, Weihua Jie, and Xunqiang Yin. 2025: Seasonal predictability of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation based on the current dynamical models,Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,130(1), e2023JD039991. doi:0.1029/2023JD039991.

六、荣誉获奖:

2020年，入选“新时代气象高层次科技创新人才气象领军人才”，荣获“国家级首席科学家”称号；

2021年，团队获国家超级计算广州中心“2012‘天河之星‘优秀应用奖”（项目名称：“中国多模式集合(CMME)预测系统”）；

2022年，2021年度四川省科学技术进步奖（三等奖、排名第三），项目名称：“高原山地复杂地形区域电网覆冰灾害监测预警预报关键技术研究及应用”；

2025年，获“中国气象局2025年度科技成果评价”优秀一等（两类ENSO现象的动力学机理、气候影响与预测方法研究，排名第一）和优秀二等（中国多模式集合预测系统（CMME）研发与应用，排名第二）；

2026年，获“2025年度中国气候研究重大进展”（东亚陆地汛期降水季节演变预测新方法的研发与应用）。