报告题目：Opportunities and barriers for skillful sub-seasonal prediction
报告专家：刘飞 教授
报告时间：2023年09月05日（周二）上午10:00
报告地点：气象楼423会议室
主 持 人：朱志伟 教授
专家简介：
刘飞教授是中山大学大气科学学院教授，博士研究生导师，江苏省特聘教授。中国气象学会动力委员会委员，第六次IPCC报告参与作者。长期从事热带动力学研究，主要研究热带气候系统多尺度相互作用:基于季节内振荡的理论框架，量化季风次季节变率起源，提出极端天气气候灾害事件预测的舍与得, 建立新能源延伸期预测系统；首次从资料中指出不同纬度火山对ENSO的触发作用，推广中国文献资料在气候变化研究中的贡献。发表Journal of Climate, Nature Communications等SCI论文100余篇。为Nature, Nature Comm., 和JAS等期刊审稿二百余篇。担任Journal of Climate Associate Editor。
报告摘要：
Accurate sub-seasonal prediction (2-8 weeks) of precipitation is of utmost importance for effective disaster prevention, renewable energy application, logistical planning, agricultural production, and decision-making. Unfortunately, the current state-of-the-art sub-seasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) dynamical models exhibit limited average prediction skill below 0.5 beyond one week, thereby reducing the usefulness of their low average prediction skill. To address this issue, we conducted convergent empirical and modeling analyses to quantify the sources of intraseasonal variability in global precipitation. Based on this analysis, we identified both the opportunities and barriers for achieving accurate sub-seasonal prediction of global precipitation. This novel approach of identifying opportunities and barriers for accurate sub-seasonal prediction also holds potential benefits for weather forecasting and climate prediction.
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气象灾害教育部重点实验室
气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
大气科学学院
2023.09.02