报告题目：Current status of SINFONY - the combination of Nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction on the convective scale at DWD
报告专家：Dr. Ulrich Blahak
报告时间：2023年4月25日（周二）16:00
会议形式：ZOOM-线上会议（会议ID: 329 593 0089, 会议密码：87654321）
会议链接（无需密码）：https://us02web.zoom.us/j/3295930089?pwd=Tis2eU4vVE5mZmI4NGxpVXRDRVhxQT09
主持人：曾跃飞 教授
专家简介：Dr. Ulrich Blahak，Senior scientist at Division for Meteorological Analysis and Modeling of Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Germany. From 2010-2016, Coordinator of COSMO-model developments with German Universities and the COSMO Consortium. Since 2017, Project leader of pilot project for DWD's future Seamless INtegrated FOrecastiNg sYstem (SINFONY). His research interests include cloud physics, numerical modelling of convection, radar meteorology, radar data assimilation.
报告摘要：There are different optimal forecast methods for different forecast lead times. Focusing on precipitation and convective events up to some hours ahead, radar extrapolation techniques (Nowcasting) show good skill up to about 2 h ahead, while numerical weather prediction (NWP) outperforms Nowcasting only at later hours. Optimally combining precipitation forecasts from Nowcasting and NWP as function of lead time leads to seamless forecasts. However, very often separate groups work on these topics independently, even at the same center. Progress on all these fields could be enhanced by strengthening the coordination, feedback and exchange among the groups. In 2017, DWD has taken this road when setting up a project to research, develop and establish its future SINFONY, which will provide the basis for DWD's future severe weather warning process from minutes to 12 h. SINFONY entered the pre-operational testing phase in 2021, and this presentation gives an overview on SINFONY and its current status.
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气象灾害教育部重点实验室
气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心
大气科学学院
2023.04.19