报告题目： Climate and Ecosystem Interactions: Climate Change, Fuels and Fire
时间： 2014年12月29日（周一）下午：14:00-15:00
地点： 气象楼825会议室
报告人： 刘永强 教授
主持人： 邱新法 教授
专家简介：刘永强教授长 期从事地气相互作用、气溶胶和气候相互作用、气候和生态系统相互作用和区域气候模拟的研究工作，改进了地气相互作用时间尺度的估计，应用区域气候模拟进行 旱涝模拟及预报、陆地风参数化、三北防护林改进区域气候的作用、林火气溶胶对干旱的增强作用、气候变化对生态系统影响的预测等。目前联合负责美国林业局森林火灾温室气体和气溶胶排放综合评估项目和林业局南方研究院气候变化研究森林火灾分项目。目前的研究课题包括地球模拟系统改进、气候变化对森林火灾和都市 空气质量的影响、和地表状况变化的气候效应。
摘要： Climate is one of the environmental drivers for ecosystem processes and disturbances. Ecosystems, on the other hand, can impact climate through exchanges of energy, water, trace gases and particles. This study is to understand and project the impacts of climate change on forest fuels and fire in the continental United States as well as feedbacks to droughts. Dynamically downscaled regional climate change scenarios were used to estimate present and future drought indices. Fuel loading was projected using a dynamic global vegetation model with an algorithm developed to fill the time gap with the climate change scenarios. A fire probability model developed using extreme value theory was used to project future large fire occurrence. An increase of fuel load in the future, mainly in the western U.S., is projected. Future fire potential is expected to increase by one grade in many regions, leading to increased fire occurrence by more than half and PM2.5 emissions by several times in many regions by middle this century. Drought frequency is likely to increase with denser vegetation coverage. The results suggest increasing challenges and resource needs in future forest management and services such as prescribed burning practice.
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