报告题目：Advanced Global Tropical Cyclone Forecasts from NOAA using High-Resolution Operational HWRF
报告时间：2014年11月26日（周三）上午10:30
报告地点：气象楼1114报告厅
报告主持：吴立广 教授
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报告摘要：
In the past few years, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational high-resolution Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system has shown significant improvements in the tropical cyclone track, intensity, structure, size, and rainfall forecasts. With the support from NOAAs Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), the HWRF team at NCEPs Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) have expanded the scope of the HWRF model for all tropical oceanic basins of the world, evolving HWRF into a unique regional model with global coverage, providing more skillful real-time track and intensity forecast guidance for all tropical cyclones in the world. The atmosphere-ocean coupled operational HWRF modeling system is also being supported to the research community through NOAAs Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) for academic research and advanced model development for operational needs. Through extensive international collaborations, several operational centers in the Asia-Pacific and South Asian regions have adopted HWRF model for their operational and research needs.
This presentation will focus on describing performance of the operational HWRF for tropical cyclones of all ocean basins. Significant advancements to the HWRF modeling system have been made possible through focused research and developmental efforts, systematic testing and evaluation, and this presentation will highlight the efficient mechanism established for research transitioning to operations (R2O) through support from HFIP, and possible opportunities for engaging with the HWRF team at EMC to further improve the tropical cyclone forecast skills.
Improvements in predicting the rapid intensity changes,development of advanced inner core data assimilation techniques and application of scale-aware and stochastic physics remain as the high priority area of research done in collaboration with several NOAA agencies, international operational centers and academic partners. High-resolution ensembles and global-to-local scale modeling efforts are going to define the future generation tropical cyclone forecasting tools to meet the operational requirements.
专家简介：
Dr. Vijay Tallapragada is the Hurricane Team Leader at NOAAs Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in College Park, MD.
Dr. Tallapragada is responsible for developing and implementing state-of-the-art hurricane models for providing operational forecast guidance to the US Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast Agencies (NHC, CPHC and JTWC). He is instrumental in developing and advancing the NCEP operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system and is the Development Manager for NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), apart from serving as a steering committee member for NOAA’s Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT). He coordinates various tropical cyclone research activities within NOAA and partnering government, academic, and private organizations,and designs strategies for effective transition of research to operations. In the recent years, HWRF model has evolved into a unique regional model with global coverage, providing real-time forecast guidance for all tropical cyclones in the world. HWRF is the only operational hurricane model in the world that is available to the research community through NOAA’s Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) which provides support for users and model developers.
Through Dr. Tallapragada’s extensive international collaborations, several operational centers in the Asia-Pacific region have adopted HWRF model for their operational forecast and research needs. Dr. Tallapragada is a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA)’s Key Laboratory for Numerical Modeling of Tropical Cyclones and is on various panels for World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s International Working Group on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC). Dr. Tallapragada is also leading several projects related to tasking aircraft reconnaissance missions using NOAA P3, GIV and NASA Global Hawk platforms to obtain data and assimilate in the operational models for improved hurricane initialization.
Dr. Tallapragada’s research interests involve developing comprehensive high-resolution air-sea-wave-land coupled modeling systems for more accurate tropical cyclone forecasts, studying the role of convective, vortex-scale and large-scale processes influencing tropical cyclone track, structure, and intensity, assessing impact of aircraft and satellite observations using advanced data assimilation techniques, and developing advanced diagnostic methods for evaluating model performance. His recent research work has resulted in addressing the prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensity changes, and structure forecasts.
Prior to joining NCEP/EMC in 2006, Dr. Tallapragada was a Research Associate at the Department of Meteorology in Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL for seven years, where he was mentored by world renowned tropical meteorologist Prof. T.N. Krishnamurti.Dr. Tallapragada holds a Ph.D. in tropical meteorology, M.Tech. Degree in Atmospheric Science and M.S. Degree in Meteorology. He has more than 50refereed publications in various journals of international reputation, and has supervised five Ph.D. candidates.
Apart from recognitions at various levels, Dr. Tallapragada is the recipient of the NOAA National Weather Service highest award at the National Level, the Isaac Cline Award for Scientific Leadership for the year 2013, and has been nominated for US Department of Commerce Gold Medal for Scientific Achievement for the year 2014.